Risk & Readiness Analysis

Predictive risk assessment and scenario modeling for transformation success.

Success Probability

5%

Without intervention

Critical Risks

3

of 5 total risks

Avg Risk Impact

84%

Across all categories

Timeline at Risk

18 mo

2% current readiness

Transformation Success Probability

Without any intervention or investment

5%Critical
0-25%Critical
25-50%At Risk
50-100%On Track

Based on current workforce readiness of 2%, 12 critical gaps, and 99% of the team below threshold. This probability improves dramatically with targeted investment.

Risk Probability vs Impact Matrix

5 identified risks plotted by likelihood and business impact

R1: Insufficient Cloud-Nati...R2: Cultural Resistance to ...R3: Key Person DependenciesR4: Timeline OverrunR5: Security Compliance Gap

Scenario Comparison: Projected Readiness Over Time

Three investment scenarios compared over 18-month timeline

Risk Register & Mitigation Plan

5 identified risks with recommended mitigation strategies

R1

Insufficient Cloud-Native Skills

Emergency

Only 0% of the workforce meets minimum readiness thresholds. 12 critical skill gaps identified across 32 target competencies.

Mitigation: Immediate intensive training program + strategic hiring of 8-12 cloud-native specialists

Probability
92%
Impact
95%
R2

Cultural Resistance to Change

Emergency

Multiple senior team members show active resistance to cloud migration. Waterfall-dominant PMO culture conflicts with DevOps transformation.

Mitigation: Executive sponsorship program, change management workshops, early adopter champion network

Probability
85%
Impact
80%
R3

Key Person Dependencies

Emergency

Elena Grigore (DEV-001) is the only person with production Kubernetes experience. Single point of failure for the entire cloud platform.

Mitigation: Immediate knowledge transfer program, hire 2 senior K8s engineers, document all processes

Probability
75%
Impact
88%
R4

Timeline Overrun

Critical

18-month timeline is aggressive given current 2% readiness. Training alone requires 12 months minimum for critical mass.

Mitigation: Phased delivery approach, prioritize quick wins, extend to 24 months if needed

Probability
80%
Impact
70%
R5

Security Compliance Gap

Critical

Security team has zero cloud security expertise. Telecom regulations require continuous compliance.

Mitigation: Dedicated cloud security training track, hire DevSecOps specialist, automated compliance tooling

Probability
65%
Impact
85%